基于力学机制的钢筋混凝土柱抗剪承载力模型∗

为了兼顾钢筋混凝土(RC)柱抗剪承载力分析的计算精度和简便性,研究建立了一种基于力学机制的RC柱抗剪承载力简化模型。首先基于变角桁架-拱模型理论,结合变角桁架模型的力平衡条件以及变角桁架模型和拱模型之间的变形协调条件,建立了RC柱抗剪承载力分析的理论模型;然后利用38组试验数据进行统计分析,分别确定了混凝土、箍筋和拱模型的抗剪承载力贡献系数近似取值,在此基础上建立了R C柱抗剪承载力分析的简化模型;最后通过与试验数据进行对比分析,验证了该模型的计算精度和适用性。分析结果表明,该模型不仅可以合理分析混凝土、箍筋和拱作用的抗剪承载力贡献,具有较高的计算精度,而且计算公式较为简洁。     

FRP加固震损RC柱建模方法及骨架模型研究

为研究震损RC柱采用FRP(Fiber Reinforced Polymer,FRP)加固修复后的抗震性能,本文基于OpenSees仿真平台,根据震后RC柱的表观损伤状态提出FRP加固震损RC柱的有限元模型建立方法。对FRP加固震损RC柱进行5120种工况的Pushover分析,采用三折线荷载-位移骨架曲线,研究损伤状态对骨架曲线特征点参数的影响规律,并通过数据回归分析提出FRP加固震损RC柱的骨架曲线计算模型。分析结果表明:损伤会降低FRP加固RC柱的承载力及刚度,且降低程度随损伤指数的增大而增加,两者近似成抛物线关系;在DS-5损伤状态下,相比于FRP加固完好RC柱,FRP加固震损RC柱的屈服承载力P y、峰值承载力P c、弹性刚度K 1、弹塑性刚度K 2及下降段刚度K 3的均值下降17.9%、14.5%、41.8%、43.1%和19.9%;损伤对FRP加固RC柱弹性刚度和弹塑性刚度的降低程度明显高于屈服承载力和峰值承载力;文中提出的FRP加固震损RC柱骨架曲线计算模型具有较高精度。     

Structural equation model of the influence of noise annoyance on miners’ unsafe behavior in coal mines

Miners' unsafe behavior (UB) is the main cause of coal mine accidents. Previous research has suggested that excessive noise in tunnels impacts miners' temperaments and safe production behavior. To explore the influence of noise on UB, four different dimensions of noise annoyance were identified: cognitive, emotional, communication, and physical mechanism annoyance. The coal mine noise annoyance scale, miners' unsafe behavior intention (UBI) scale, and miners’ UB scale were developed according to different dimensions. In the first survey, a total of 200 questionnaires were distributed in the two coal mines, and 193 valid questionnaires were recovered. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted, and invalid items were removed according to the analysis results to form the final scale. Then, 500 final scales were distributed in two Chinese coal mines, and 482 valid questionnaires were collected. Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted by collating the data of the second questionnaire. Based upon the structural equation model (SEM), the SEM of the influence of noise annoyance degree on UB and the path analysis with latent variable path analysis with the latent variables (PA-LVs) mediating model of the effect of UBI on UB were established, and the path coefficients with fitting data of the model were analyzed. The results indicated that the four dimensions of coal mine noise annoyance had a strong positive impact on UB, which was reduced by less noise annoyance. In addition, the Bootstrap method was used to verify the mediating method among the four dimensions of noise annoyance, cognitive annoyance, emotional annoyance, with communication annoyance indirectly affecting UB through UBI. The research results provide theoretical support for reducing the UB of miners and improving coal mine safety levels.     

考虑公众选择偏好的应急避难安置双阶段选址-分配模型*

为使开放避难场所符合公众自行避难的实际情况,借鉴Huff模型量化公众选择行为,构建双阶段选址-分配模型,第1阶段确定开放避难场所位置,第2阶段将溢出容量的灾民二次分配到有剩余容量的避难场所,并利用改进粒子群算法进行求解。研究结果表明:双阶段选址-分配模型能够实现同一需求点灾民前往不同避难场所的过程,管理者干预政策能够使服务人数大幅度增加,避免资源浪费、灾民流离失所且二次分配情况主要依赖于第1阶段的结果。研究结果可为管理部门规划应急避难场所提供参考。     

智能手机应用程序使用与操作的驾驶分心风险影响研究*

为研究智能手机应用程序操作方式与使用行为对驾驶分心影响的问题,探讨智能手机程序操作方式对驾驶分心影响的优劣关系,基于结构方程模型提出4个因果关系假设,构建涵盖程序使用、驾驶分心、驾驶绩效等潜变量的智能手机使用行为影响的结构方程模型。通过收集线下问卷的方式进行调查,搭建模拟场景,设计6项实验方案,通过驾驶模拟实验方式收集相关数据,建立相对偏差矩阵。研究结果表明:手机通话功能的使用（路径系数0.472）对驾驶分心影响显著,手机导航功能使用（路径系数0.256）、手机音乐功能使用（路径系数0.249）对驾驶分心影响不显著。语音交互方式均优于手动操作方式,其中语音交互启动导航方式（F3=0.019）的影响最小。研究结果可对道路驾驶情况下智能手机应用使用与操作方式的研究起推动作用。     

基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型*

为提高林火风险预测精度,挖掘地图上隐含的空间信息、时间序列上隐含的长期趋势和循环波动,提出1种基于缓冲区重采样的长短期记忆（LSTM）林火预测模型,选取15个与林火相关的影响因素,以方差膨胀因子为评价指标对其进行多重共线性检验,方差膨胀因子大于10的因素具有共线性,并采用信息增益率验证筛选结果的合理性。考虑到火灾的空间聚集特性,采用缓冲区分析与过采样相结合方法减少样本不均衡现象的影响,最终得到176 732条样本。对12个影响因素和研究时间段的火点建立LSTM预测模型,对森林火灾发生风险进行预测。研究结果表明:基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型有效考虑时空上隐含的信息,预测模型准确率为87.06%,特异性为97.99%,敏感度为76.12%,阳性预测率为97.43%,阴性预测率为80.41%,ROC曲线与AUC值均优于随机森林（RF）和支持向量机（SVM）这2种基准算法。维尔克松秩和检验发现,本文提出的模型与基准算法结果具有显著性差异。研究结果可为提高林火风险预测精度提供参考。     

燃煤电厂锅炉PM2.5排放危害度评价模型建立及案例分析

为评价燃煤电厂锅炉PM2.5排放的危害度,根据颗粒的形成机制及对环境和人体健康的影响程度,将PM2.5进行了粒径分段,综合考虑不同粒径段颗粒物的质量浓度、粒数浓度、汞相对富集因子及汞元素在煤灰分中含量,建立了燃煤锅炉PM2.5排放危害度综合评价模型,最后利用已有文献现场实验测得的数据对评价模型进行了案例分析,并提出了危害度削减系数概念,可用于对除尘装置进行评价.     

Cybersecurity and dynamic operation in practice: Equipment impacts and safety guarantees

Though dynamic operation of chemical processes has been extensively explored theoretically in contexts such as economic model predictive control or even considering the potential for cyberattacks on control systems creating non-standard operating policies, important practical questions remain regarding dynamic operation. In this work, we look at two of these with particular relevance to process safety: (1) evaluating dynamic operating policies with respect to process equipment fidelity and (2) evaluating procedures for determining the parameters of an advanced control law that can promote both dynamic operation as well as safety if appropriately designed. Regarding the first topic, we utilize computational fluid dynamics and finite element analysis simulations to analyze how cyberattacks on control systems could impact a metric for stress in equipment (maximum Von Mises stress) over time. Subsequently, we develop reduced-order models showing how both a process variable and maximum Von Mises stress vary over time in response to temperature variations at the boundary of the equipment, to use in evaluating how advanced control frameworks might impact and consider the stress. We close by investigating options for obtaining parameters of an economic model predictive control design that would need to meet a variety of theoretical requirements for safety guarantees to hold. This provides insights on practical safety aspects of control theory, and also indicates relationships between control and design from a safety perspective that highlight further relationships between design and control under dynamic operation to deepen perspectives from the computational fluid dynamics and finite element analysis discussions.     

AERMOD与估算模式在环境影响评价中的应用与比较

采用AERMOD和估算模式两种预测模式对同一生活垃圾填埋场进行了预测。比较两种预测结果可以看出,在污染源、预测范围、运行周期相同的情况下,敏感点处的落地浓度均与排放源强呈正比,与距离呈反比。预测结果同时说明,估算模式是一种保守的预测模式,其预测结果比AERMOD模式大,可作为进一步预测模式的有效补充。     

Scale-up modeling of the twin roll casting process for AZ31 magnesium alloy

In the present study, a 2-D finite-element method (FEM) thermal-fluid-stress model has been developed and validated for the twin roll casting (TRC) of AZ31 magnesium alloy. The model was then used to quantify how the thermo-mechanical history experienced by the strip during TRC would change as the equipment was scaled up from a laboratory size (roll diameter = 355 mm) to a pilot scale (roll diameter = 600 mm) and to an industrial scale (roll diameter = 1150 mm) machine. The model predictions showed that the thermal history and solidification cooling rate experienced by the strip are not affected significantly by caster scale-up. However, the mechanical history experienced by the strip did change remarkably depending on the roll diameters. Casting with bigger rolls led to the development of higher stress levels at the strip surface. The roll separating force/mm width of strip was also predicted to increase significantly when the TRC was scaled to larger sizes. Using the model predicted results, the effect of both casting speed and roll diameter was integrated into an empirical equation to predict the exit temperature and the roll separating force for AZ31. Using this approach, a TRC process map was generated for AZ31 which included roll diameter and casting speed.